Fall TV is well on its way into the season, as we’re on the verge of mid-season finales. It seems like forever ago when all the networks were building hype around their latest and greatest shows. Some shows have survived; others haven’t fared so well.
So how do you know if your show will continue on to the glory of a second season? TiVo® Research has found a nifty way to answer this question – meet Promo Conversion.
Promo Conversion is defined as the percentage of households who are exposed to at least three on-air promos for a given program and who also tune in for the series premiere of that same program. In layperson’s terms: You see at least three commercials for a new show. You think the new show is cool enough to sit through the season premiere. The coolness factor of converting commercials watched to premieres watched is Promo Conversion.
Here’s an example. Fox’s The Grinder ranked 14th overall in terms of campaign reach, sitting at a not-so-impressive 62 percent. However, its Promo Conversion score of 14.4 percent is fourth among new fall 2015 series. Lo and behold, The Grinder has already received a full season order from Fox.
Here’s the flip side. ABC’s Wicked City busted out at a whopping 77 percent campaign reach. Despite all this hype, Wicked City’s 3.6 percent Promo Conversion score likely contributed to that show’s distinct dishonor of being the first cancelled series of this season.
Still skeptical? Check out some more top new fall programs below and see for yourself!
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| Top New Fall Programs by Promo Conversion Score, 2010–2014 | ||||||
| #1 Show from the Fall of | Network | Program | Promo Conversion | Current Status | ||
| 2010 | CBS | $#*! My Dad Says | 26% | Cancelled after one season | ||
| 2011 | CBS | 2 Broke Girls | 28% | Currently on the air | ||
| 2012 | CBS | Elementary | 26% | Currently on the air | ||
| 2013 | ABC | Marvel Agents of Shield | 27% | Currently on the air | ||
| 2014 | Fox | Gotham | 22% | Currently on the air | ||
Top New Fall Series by Promotional Campaign Reach, 2010-2014
| #1 Show from the Fall of | Network | Program | Reach | Current Status |
| 2010 | NBC | The Event | 86% | Cancelled after one season |
| 2011 | NBC | Whitney | 85% | Cancelled after two seasons |
| 2012 | NBC | Revolution | 86% | Cancelled after two seasons |
| 2013 | ABC | Once Upon A Time in Wonderland | 76% | Cancelled after one season |
| 2014 | CBS | Scorpion | 81% | Currently on the air |
Promo Conversion Score Rankings, 2015 New Fall Series
| Rank | Network | Product | Promo Conversion |
| 1 | ABC | THE MUPPETS | 19.6% |
| 2 | CBS | SUPERGIRL | 18.9% |
| 3 | ABC | QUANTICO | 14.6% |
| 4 | Fox | THE GRINDER | 14.4% |
| 5 | Fox | MINORITY REPORT | 14.3% |
| 6 | NBC | BLINDSPOT | 13.3% |
| 7 | NBC | HEROES REBORN | 13.2% |
| 8 | CBS | LIFE IN PIECES | 13.1% |
| 9 | CBS | LIMITLESS | 12.9% |
| 10 | NBC | THE PLAYER | 11.3% |
| 11 | CBS | CODE BLACK | 10.4% |
| 12 | Fox | GRANDFATHERED | 10.4% |
| 13 | NBC | BEST TIME EVER WITH NEIL PATRICK HARRIS | 10.3% |
| 14 | Fox | SCREAM QUEENS | 9.6% |
| 15 | NBC | TRUTH BE TOLD | 8.6% |
| 16 | ABC | DR. KEN | 8.3% |
| 17 | Fox | ROSEWOOD | 8.2% |
| 18 | ABC | BLOOD & OIL | 6.1% |
| 19 | CW | CRAZY EX-GIRLFRIEND | 4.4% |
| 20 | ABC | WICKED CITY | 3.6% |
Promotional Campaign Reach Rankings, 2015 New Fall Series
| Rank | Network | Product | Commercial Reach: Live + 7 Days | Commercial Frequency: Live + 7 Days |
| 1 | NBC | BLINDSPOT | 78% | 10 |
| 2 | ABC | WICKED CITY | 77% | 14 |
| 3 | CBS | SUPERGIRL | 75% | 9 |
| 4 | ABC | BLOOD & OIL | 73% | 11 |
| 5 | CBS | LIMITLESS | 72% | 9 |
| 6 | ABC | QUANTICO | 71% | 8 |
| 7 | ABC | DR. KEN | 71% | 8 |
| 8 | NBC | HEROES REBORN | 71% | 6 |
| 9 | CBS | CODE BLACK | 69% | 7 |
| 10 | ABC | THE MUPPETS | 69% | 8 |
| 11 | NBC | THE PLAYER | 68% | 6 |
| 12 | CBS | LIFE IN PIECES | 67% | 7 |
| 13 | NBC | BEST TIME EVER WITH NEIL PATRICK HARRIS | 66% | 7 |
| 14 | Fox | THE GRINDER | 62% | 4 |
| 15 | Fox | GRANDFATHERED | 61% | 4 |
| 16 | Fox | SCREAM QUEENS | 61% | 5 |
| 17 | Fox | ROSEWOOD | 54% | 4 |
| 18 | NBC | TRUTH BE TOLD | 53% | 3 |
| 19 | Fox | MINORITY REPORT | 52% | 3 |
| 20 | CW | CRAZY EX-GIRLFRIEND | 39% | 3 |